* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 07/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 57 58 54 51 49 46 43 40 32 19 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 57 58 54 51 40 37 34 31 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 57 58 57 50 44 33 36 37 39 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 29 34 33 33 30 30 24 24 20 7 20 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 3 1 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 254 234 238 243 249 276 280 280 239 205 201 271 268 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.0 24.2 21.5 15.4 11.7 10.0 6.1 7.0 7.4 6.0 5.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 115 101 87 72 68 67 64 63 61 60 60 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 98 88 78 68 66 65 63 62 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -55.6 -55.5 -54.5 -53.2 -51.7 -50.2 -50.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 54 57 58 68 73 67 53 45 50 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 7 10 13 16 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -15 -39 -65 -63 -47 -3 58 117 109 56 50 43 200 MB DIV 30 31 0 -12 29 0 47 25 34 18 13 -11 -10 700-850 TADV 8 12 15 24 29 31 26 0 3 -15 2 13 37 LAND (KM) 518 477 440 405 292 153 128 23 181 278 329 258 148 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.8 38.7 39.9 41.0 43.7 46.5 49.6 52.6 55.2 56.5 56.4 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 68.2 67.0 65.7 64.4 61.3 57.9 54.8 53.1 53.3 54.7 56.2 57.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 17 14 10 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 8. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 13. 9. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -13. -26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 07/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 07/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 07/13/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)