* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 70 75 82 95 96 99 102 96 92 84 79 V (KT) LAND 60 64 70 75 82 95 96 99 102 96 92 84 79 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 68 72 76 84 92 96 97 92 84 75 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 12 8 4 7 6 7 7 9 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 261 280 306 309 336 55 6 47 93 141 75 99 62 SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 165 163 163 159 152 146 138 131 122 116 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 74 74 73 70 68 67 60 60 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 24 26 30 30 32 37 37 38 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 13 10 12 33 41 60 71 88 87 102 97 200 MB DIV 76 88 91 70 83 70 41 68 49 51 3 7 -5 700-850 TADV 7 8 3 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 1 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 270 293 329 357 387 434 483 441 391 416 478 518 601 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.4 107.1 107.6 108.0 108.9 109.8 110.8 111.8 113.1 114.7 116.1 117.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 36 33 31 22 17 12 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 16. 19. 26. 26. 29. 25. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 22. 35. 36. 39. 42. 36. 32. 24. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##