* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 37 35 30 26 23 19 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 37 35 30 26 23 19 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 29 26 23 21 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 4 6 11 15 14 13 12 14 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 1 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 342 328 274 236 218 182 191 216 221 203 202 191 177 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 137 135 128 122 117 113 111 109 109 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 61 61 59 56 53 48 42 39 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 18 19 19 18 18 18 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 60 52 45 49 54 52 74 73 86 84 83 200 MB DIV 75 53 51 39 16 -17 -16 -11 30 0 1 11 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 5 3 3 1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1790 1805 1819 1853 1889 1978 2094 2201 2026 1897 1800 1780 1814 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.7 19.6 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.2 127.9 128.6 129.3 130.9 132.4 133.9 135.5 136.7 137.6 137.8 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 3 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 12 12 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##