* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CLAUDETTE AL032015 07/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 52 51 47 47 42 38 33 27 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 52 51 47 36 30 30 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 53 53 50 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 34 33 32 33 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 245 253 259 270 287 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.2 24.7 21.5 17.9 12.5 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 118 105 87 76 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 101 91 78 71 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -56.4 -56.0 -55.6 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 51 53 54 59 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -40 -57 -65 -55 8 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 -2 -9 3 9 0 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 17 29 27 42 23 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 518 491 415 312 257 70 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.7 39.8 41.2 42.5 45.6 49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.5 66.1 64.8 63.4 62.0 59.2 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 26 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 16 CX,CY: 14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -8. -8. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. 2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032015 CLAUDETTE 07/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032015 CLAUDETTE 07/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032015 CLAUDETTE 07/13/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)