* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 76 83 92 99 104 105 105 98 92 80 75 V (KT) LAND 65 70 76 83 92 99 104 105 105 98 92 80 75 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 78 85 90 98 103 103 98 91 81 70 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 8 6 8 5 2 5 4 6 9 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 277 302 298 333 333 41 35 60 137 131 89 57 62 SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.2 26.4 25.6 24.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 164 162 160 154 150 143 135 127 119 108 98 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 77 77 78 74 73 72 70 67 62 61 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 25 29 29 33 34 37 38 38 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 8 17 27 52 50 76 89 94 99 98 95 200 MB DIV 76 82 81 97 88 60 72 43 61 26 -4 -15 -1 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 -8 -4 0 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 270 291 322 351 382 443 466 418 404 472 498 580 649 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.3 109.3 110.1 111.2 112.5 114.0 115.6 117.3 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 32 28 25 19 15 10 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 11. 14. 20. 23. 27. 27. 28. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 27. 34. 39. 40. 40. 33. 27. 15. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##