* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 33 31 27 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 33 31 27 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 32 29 26 23 21 19 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 14 19 16 14 15 18 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 1 -1 -2 1 -5 -1 -4 -2 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 304 281 264 250 222 177 203 214 201 189 194 185 193 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 132 129 121 116 111 109 107 106 109 111 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 61 59 58 51 49 45 40 33 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 17 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 69 61 45 35 39 60 55 76 80 87 86 84 80 200 MB DIV 52 46 30 4 -6 -9 -12 1 25 8 14 -13 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 2 2 3 2 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1775 1776 1780 1838 1897 2024 2142 2097 1969 1862 1778 1757 1781 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.8 128.4 129.3 130.1 131.9 133.5 134.8 136.0 137.0 137.8 138.0 137.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -14. -17. -22. -24. -29. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##