* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 23 27 32 36 38 38 38 37 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 23 27 32 36 38 38 38 37 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 18 18 18 20 22 25 28 31 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 11 14 10 1 10 17 18 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 108 119 92 71 74 78 82 352 288 287 280 276 298 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 143 142 142 143 143 143 142 141 141 141 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 41 40 41 40 37 35 37 39 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 41 35 24 22 31 29 28 12 17 3 -2 -10 200 MB DIV 0 2 -11 -23 -6 -2 26 -3 -7 -8 4 -5 10 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1031 1096 1171 1244 1325 1481 1630 1750 1859 1930 2011 2077 4085 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 165.3 166.5 167.6 168.8 169.9 171.9 173.8 175.3 176.7 177.7 178.7 179.5 180.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 32 25 27 31 27 10 20 29 36 26 16 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##