* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 73 80 87 94 100 100 95 86 77 66 56 V (KT) LAND 65 68 73 80 87 94 100 100 95 86 77 66 56 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 78 82 88 93 94 91 85 77 67 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 7 6 6 6 4 6 7 5 10 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -7 -3 -3 -2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 300 311 324 342 18 355 54 78 81 89 96 75 68 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.5 25.7 24.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 161 159 155 148 141 135 128 120 110 101 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 75 75 73 72 68 62 55 50 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 26 29 31 32 35 36 35 33 30 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 17 24 40 38 66 66 90 90 123 100 80 200 MB DIV 81 67 92 92 85 49 84 47 62 -4 7 -12 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 -3 -2 0 -3 3 -3 2 LAND (KM) 300 325 355 380 405 458 459 431 440 518 587 697 762 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.2 107.7 108.1 108.5 109.4 110.6 111.8 112.9 114.5 116.5 118.3 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 30 28 24 19 13 7 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 22. 21. 18. 13. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 35. 35. 30. 21. 12. 1. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##