* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 29 27 24 22 20 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 5 7 16 19 10 16 19 21 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 286 283 269 240 176 189 219 212 208 207 212 215 210 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 129 124 119 114 109 106 106 107 110 112 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 59 59 55 50 48 42 39 33 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 18 18 18 18 15 14 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 59 45 35 29 34 40 46 65 65 60 59 66 57 200 MB DIV 40 24 4 -10 -2 -24 -8 25 -3 -4 0 -18 -21 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 -1 0 1 4 5 3 0 -2 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1826 1846 1869 1917 1968 2077 2166 2063 1945 1861 1809 1779 1795 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.3 20.2 19.7 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.8 129.5 130.3 131.1 132.5 133.9 135.1 136.2 137.0 137.5 137.8 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##