* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 81 88 94 102 106 104 96 87 75 65 54 V (KT) LAND 70 74 81 88 94 102 106 104 96 87 75 65 54 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 78 83 87 92 95 94 89 82 72 61 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 5 4 4 1 1 2 10 4 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 314 329 345 32 17 11 72 116 46 87 100 28 29 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 28.9 28.2 27.5 26.7 25.9 25.0 23.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 161 160 159 152 145 138 130 122 113 100 93 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 75 74 71 70 68 61 60 55 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 26 28 30 32 35 36 34 34 30 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 23 38 50 52 68 81 84 100 105 90 72 200 MB DIV 52 68 80 91 71 68 53 58 24 9 0 -6 6 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 -6 -1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 336 362 390 404 419 488 445 422 472 504 594 666 684 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.8 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.7 108.1 108.5 108.8 109.9 111.0 112.2 113.7 115.3 117.2 118.8 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 29 25 21 16 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 23. 21. 20. 16. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 18. 25. 32. 36. 34. 26. 17. 5. -5. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##