* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 28 25 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 8 13 21 16 16 18 16 19 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -6 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 253 252 227 183 185 207 235 231 232 217 219 215 209 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 129 124 121 117 112 108 106 106 108 110 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 59 57 53 49 45 41 38 37 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 31 35 44 38 53 56 66 49 61 62 60 200 MB DIV 36 12 -9 -9 -14 -22 -8 15 2 0 -9 -15 -21 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 3 6 5 2 0 -4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1842 1875 1912 1959 2007 2103 2139 2009 1903 1841 1799 1770 1764 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.3 19.9 19.4 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.7 129.5 130.2 131.0 131.7 133.0 134.4 135.6 136.6 137.2 137.6 137.9 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -21. -27. -29. -32. -34. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##