* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 80 86 92 99 103 100 92 79 66 55 46 V (KT) LAND 70 74 80 86 92 99 103 100 92 79 66 55 46 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 77 80 83 87 90 89 83 74 64 52 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 6 3 4 3 6 3 8 8 8 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 -3 1 2 6 0 SHEAR DIR 313 327 358 341 357 88 69 71 46 88 51 47 319 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.3 23.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 158 156 153 148 140 133 124 116 106 92 89 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 74 72 72 68 64 62 56 53 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 29 30 32 34 38 38 37 34 30 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 32 52 46 72 69 93 81 103 97 68 62 200 MB DIV 66 72 89 67 69 73 49 45 -1 15 -11 27 4 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -3 1 -3 2 -3 LAND (KM) 366 395 425 439 456 446 398 416 473 511 610 624 643 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.9 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.2 109.5 110.4 111.5 112.9 114.4 116.1 117.8 119.5 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 21 19 17 11 6 1 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 21. 20. 16. 11. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 29. 33. 30. 22. 9. -4. -15. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##