* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 36 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 39 36 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 41 40 36 32 28 25 23 21 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 11 14 16 10 10 12 15 15 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -6 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 257 242 188 198 205 225 251 224 217 205 199 194 199 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 125 122 118 114 109 105 103 102 105 105 108 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 59 58 54 48 43 40 37 36 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 18 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 28 35 29 27 48 45 44 44 45 46 49 200 MB DIV 12 -5 -8 -11 -15 -4 27 2 -8 2 -9 -20 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 1 2 6 6 4 0 -5 -7 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 1844 1880 1917 1953 1991 2077 2114 2008 1955 1935 1945 1936 1937 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.6 20.7 20.2 19.8 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.9 130.5 131.2 131.8 133.1 134.6 135.6 136.1 136.3 136.2 136.3 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 4 2 1 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -35. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##