* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 89 96 100 97 88 76 62 52 41 31 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 89 96 100 97 88 76 62 52 41 31 V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 85 91 95 99 95 83 72 60 48 37 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 4 6 5 3 6 9 8 12 11 10 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -7 -5 -4 -5 -1 -5 -1 -2 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 318 295 301 322 13 128 88 94 84 83 73 56 25 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.2 26.4 25.9 25.1 23.7 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 155 152 149 144 135 126 121 114 100 91 89 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 73 72 70 68 60 60 55 53 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 29 29 33 33 34 31 30 27 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 17 32 46 42 56 82 90 82 75 85 70 50 52 200 MB DIV 72 85 70 64 83 59 52 19 7 2 4 7 10 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 1 -3 LAND (KM) 388 411 434 457 455 410 391 447 486 529 601 612 671 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.2 22.0 23.1 24.6 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.8 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.9 112.3 113.7 115.0 116.5 118.2 120.0 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 7 7 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 18 16 14 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 15. 12. 10. 6. 4. 0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 25. 22. 13. 1. -13. -23. -34. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##