* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 47 46 39 32 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 47 46 39 32 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 49 48 46 40 33 27 23 20 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 13 15 18 13 9 11 13 17 19 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -6 -7 0 0 0 -1 2 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 234 189 198 214 224 231 225 204 205 199 188 191 184 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 121 117 114 108 105 105 103 102 103 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 57 54 46 43 39 35 34 34 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 19 17 16 13 13 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 39 33 34 51 49 53 44 54 55 61 55 200 MB DIV -7 -17 -9 -15 -12 32 2 -16 -6 -13 -3 -13 -2 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 2 6 8 6 2 0 -6 -5 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1877 1917 1959 2003 2050 2140 2050 1987 1935 1903 1903 1903 1903 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.7 20.4 20.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.7 131.3 132.1 132.8 134.3 135.2 135.8 136.3 136.6 136.6 136.6 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 6 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -5. -13. -22. -29. -36. -40. -46. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##