* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 102 107 112 109 101 86 71 58 44 34 26 V (KT) LAND 90 97 102 107 112 109 101 86 71 58 44 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 90 99 107 111 113 109 97 80 66 55 42 32 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 2 2 9 10 9 9 8 4 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -3 -6 -3 -4 0 -1 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 234 282 323 349 152 125 101 65 59 39 68 338 282 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.5 25.8 25.3 24.1 22.8 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 151 146 144 137 128 120 115 104 91 89 84 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 72 70 67 58 58 56 55 49 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 33 35 35 36 33 32 30 27 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 31 54 72 66 89 81 89 85 60 48 44 200 MB DIV 89 60 52 70 90 52 38 -1 4 -6 2 -3 4 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 421 446 466 435 410 392 436 476 519 601 594 642 713 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.9 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.8 24.3 26.1 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 112.0 113.5 115.0 116.2 117.8 119.5 121.2 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 11 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -32. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 22. 19. 11. -4. -18. -32. -45. -56. -64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##