* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 125 132 134 135 122 104 89 75 60 45 34 26 V (KT) LAND 115 125 132 134 135 122 104 89 75 60 45 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 115 129 135 135 131 117 101 86 71 57 44 33 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 1 2 11 10 8 5 5 4 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 275 305 335 52 151 110 60 49 77 76 34 34 307 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.0 23.5 23.0 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 145 142 134 128 124 113 98 92 91 87 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 69 66 62 58 57 55 55 52 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 34 33 36 36 35 35 34 32 29 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 44 69 71 83 86 90 92 78 49 32 3 200 MB DIV 71 56 78 99 66 39 8 2 0 -1 -4 7 -6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 2 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 467 494 469 440 418 409 500 555 626 677 687 756 811 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.7 114.1 115.7 117.5 119.3 120.9 122.4 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 11 9 6 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -24. -33. -41. -50. -57. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 17. 15. 8. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 17. 19. 20. 7. -11. -26. -40. -55. -70. -81. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##