* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 40 37 30 24 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 13 12 14 16 16 19 19 24 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -1 3 2 -1 0 0 7 7 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 224 239 238 239 230 219 218 209 208 199 196 191 179 SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 114 111 108 106 104 102 103 104 105 104 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 52 48 43 39 36 34 33 30 27 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 46 49 45 52 51 55 45 57 52 64 62 66 200 MB DIV -7 -21 -8 22 15 -16 -10 -1 -5 -5 -15 -6 -4 700-850 TADV 0 3 7 9 9 4 1 -1 -6 -4 -5 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1997 2036 2077 2119 2135 2018 1924 1872 1862 1861 1872 1872 1883 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.4 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.3 20.1 20.0 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.5 133.1 133.8 134.4 135.5 136.4 136.9 137.0 137.0 136.9 136.9 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -10. -18. -27. -35. -43. -48. -53. -58. -59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##