* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 29 34 36 38 39 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 29 34 36 38 39 40 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 30 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 7 4 13 15 14 15 21 21 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 -3 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 54 57 55 5 304 286 324 315 334 337 347 345 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 144 144 143 143 141 141 140 141 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 36 36 34 36 38 40 44 50 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 26 21 21 2 0 -9 -7 0 0 14 5 200 MB DIV -7 6 4 4 -6 -5 -19 1 -9 13 -5 9 -4 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 1 0 3 2 0 2 0 -4 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1518 1593 1671 1745 1822 1951 2053 2140 4220 4150 4121 4049 3930 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.1 18.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 171.9 172.9 173.9 174.8 175.7 177.3 178.6 179.7 180.7 181.6 182.5 183.6 184.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 26 21 28 40 41 35 24 47 49 52 53 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 22. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##