* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 123 122 121 113 96 83 68 58 49 43 35 V (KT) LAND 115 120 123 122 121 113 96 83 68 58 49 43 35 V (KT) LGE mod 115 121 123 121 118 107 93 80 67 56 46 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 4 1 4 7 7 11 12 11 11 8 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 275 294 3 148 131 94 61 64 42 20 354 272 289 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.8 24.8 23.7 23.2 23.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 144 140 134 128 121 111 100 95 92 87 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 67 68 63 63 59 61 56 55 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 37 39 37 38 37 37 37 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 39 53 68 76 78 96 103 111 106 85 65 44 37 200 MB DIV 77 85 68 63 46 51 3 13 -2 3 -7 6 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -1 1 -2 -2 -4 1 -2 0 3 LAND (KM) 503 496 478 455 440 484 567 617 697 732 756 833 882 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.0 21.8 23.0 24.6 26.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.0 113.4 115.1 116.7 118.3 120.0 121.7 123.2 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -15. -25. -34. -42. -51. -58. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 6. 7. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 7. 6. -2. -19. -32. -47. -57. -66. -72. -80. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##