* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 32 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 32 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 35 32 29 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 11 11 16 15 19 18 21 18 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 4 2 0 -2 1 2 7 6 5 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 241 242 236 231 234 213 219 210 213 196 202 186 174 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 111 109 106 104 104 105 107 109 109 110 110 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 49 46 40 36 33 33 31 29 25 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 51 57 53 51 47 49 48 53 63 59 55 200 MB DIV -17 0 30 22 4 -14 3 -6 -1 -7 12 -6 -9 700-850 TADV 3 6 9 10 7 5 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2055 2093 2133 2119 2050 1934 1852 1799 1789 1790 1803 1835 1866 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 19.2 19.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.5 135.2 136.3 137.1 137.6 137.7 137.7 137.6 137.3 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -21. -29. -36. -43. -48. -51. -54. -53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##