* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 39 43 45 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 39 43 45 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 29 31 33 34 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 8 3 8 17 17 10 16 15 18 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 1 0 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 58 64 64 18 322 288 301 295 297 329 333 319 334 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 143 143 144 142 142 141 141 141 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 36 35 32 37 37 42 44 52 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 24 25 16 5 9 -1 8 -1 6 1 -13 200 MB DIV 4 2 -3 0 -13 -20 -14 7 -10 6 -3 5 -9 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1584 1653 1725 1790 1856 1950 2034 2103 2164 4237 4166 4076 3958 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 172.5 173.4 174.3 175.1 175.9 177.2 178.3 179.2 179.9 180.8 181.7 182.6 183.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 26 37 50 43 37 30 23 51 50 51 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/15/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##