* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 108 106 103 94 80 65 54 41 31 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 110 108 108 106 103 94 80 65 54 41 31 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 104 100 96 85 72 61 51 42 34 27 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 5 9 11 12 15 14 15 12 10 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 -1 2 1 3 3 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 260 230 123 90 109 71 66 43 17 4 5 306 296 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 144 140 137 131 128 122 113 106 100 97 93 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 69 67 58 56 52 51 45 44 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 37 37 36 36 34 32 31 29 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 53 66 73 79 95 105 116 109 97 84 78 52 10 200 MB DIV 66 74 56 53 61 24 -2 -11 7 -28 1 -14 -19 700-850 TADV 3 1 -4 -3 1 -1 -1 -3 -9 4 -4 7 4 LAND (KM) 489 463 443 443 458 555 634 716 823 858 878 952 1027 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.8 111.3 112.1 112.8 114.3 115.8 117.6 119.4 121.1 122.5 124.0 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 6 3 1 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. -31. -39. -46. -52. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 4. 1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -4. -7. -16. -30. -45. -56. -69. -79. -87. -96. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##