* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 23 27 28 28 29 30 31 32 33 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 23 27 28 28 29 30 31 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 25 25 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 5 8 9 18 13 15 18 16 20 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 0 2 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 68 67 29 329 310 301 315 289 328 331 334 325 352 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 145 144 144 142 142 141 142 142 142 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 35 34 35 35 33 35 38 37 42 45 51 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 17 18 12 5 7 -2 -6 -1 -1 11 1 -8 200 MB DIV 2 -3 -19 -13 -16 -17 7 -15 12 5 5 -13 2 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1668 1750 1834 1902 1972 2063 2168 4315 4248 4153 4072 4012 3885 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.0 16.9 17.1 17.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 173.5 174.5 175.4 176.3 177.1 178.3 179.6 180.6 181.5 182.5 183.6 184.5 185.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 47 59 57 40 28 52 53 55 56 56 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##