* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 27 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 12 13 14 14 14 16 15 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 255 248 232 217 209 209 206 197 199 196 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.0 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 108 106 104 105 106 107 108 108 107 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 44 41 36 32 32 31 31 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 16 15 13 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 57 57 52 45 50 50 45 54 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 29 25 13 0 -6 0 -11 -14 -3 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 7 6 5 2 -1 -3 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2146 2136 2071 2018 1966 1862 1799 1778 1779 1779 1768 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.8 20.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.4 135.0 135.5 136.0 137.0 137.6 137.8 137.8 137.8 137.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -42. -43. -44. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##