* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 26 26 25 25 25 27 30 32 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 26 26 25 25 25 27 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 11 13 16 14 24 21 21 11 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 2 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 52 18 345 319 303 306 284 287 278 281 293 328 339 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 144 144 144 144 144 143 144 144 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 37 38 37 34 34 39 38 40 42 47 51 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 15 6 7 12 -2 0 4 8 9 -4 -15 200 MB DIV -13 -16 -13 -5 -20 -8 16 -10 5 0 3 -11 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1674 1754 1835 1900 1967 2095 2216 4211 4116 4000 3915 3818 3668 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 173.5 174.4 175.3 176.1 176.9 178.4 179.8 181.2 182.4 183.8 185.2 186.7 187.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 47 61 64 45 34 57 58 59 58 57 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 7. 10. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##