* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 94 92 89 77 65 49 33 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 96 94 92 89 77 65 49 33 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 95 91 86 80 69 58 46 35 25 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 8 8 13 13 18 18 19 22 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 7 2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 163 179 122 68 44 36 16 360 337 317 288 276 251 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.3 23.2 22.9 22.6 22.0 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 130 125 118 106 94 91 87 81 75 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 63 60 57 53 51 47 48 46 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 35 35 35 33 32 29 27 23 19 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 66 70 86 87 74 81 90 87 58 47 19 7 15 200 MB DIV 55 53 52 52 19 -9 -6 10 3 4 -19 -22 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 7 4 10 18 5 LAND (KM) 415 404 403 442 495 555 617 696 676 689 725 734 670 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.7 21.2 22.3 23.8 25.4 27.0 28.4 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.7 112.2 113.1 113.9 115.4 116.9 118.6 120.1 121.4 122.4 123.4 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 10 10 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -29. -38. -45. -50. -55. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -11. -23. -35. -51. -67. -84. -98.-110.-117. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##