* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 27 27 27 26 27 29 32 35 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 27 27 27 26 27 29 32 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 25 25 25 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 12 15 12 19 18 23 18 18 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 0 1 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 6 330 315 298 291 276 270 289 294 309 302 325 304 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 144 144 144 143 144 145 145 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 37 34 32 33 36 38 37 40 42 50 52 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 4 8 15 9 7 11 13 20 9 -2 -15 200 MB DIV -15 -15 -16 -22 -8 14 -17 22 0 9 -15 0 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 4 1 1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1787 1862 1938 2006 2075 2216 4193 4088 3988 3882 3796 3654 3511 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 174.9 175.8 176.6 177.4 178.2 179.8 181.4 182.8 184.1 185.6 187.0 188.4 189.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 51 62 62 56 43 58 58 59 58 60 60 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##