* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 89 83 72 57 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 89 83 72 57 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 91 85 77 64 52 40 30 22 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 11 10 11 15 13 20 22 30 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 0 2 1 2 5 2 5 1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 150 130 62 46 31 24 10 353 333 297 283 270 256 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 24.6 23.1 22.7 22.4 21.7 21.1 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 129 125 120 109 94 89 86 78 71 66 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 61 59 54 53 50 48 50 47 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 36 33 31 32 29 27 24 20 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 71 82 76 69 79 81 63 36 18 -3 9 31 200 MB DIV 45 38 60 40 -5 -2 -8 14 -3 0 -10 -2 -2 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 1 -1 11 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 392 397 416 463 493 564 612 613 625 671 654 583 557 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 22.2 23.7 25.4 27.2 28.8 30.1 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.3 112.9 113.7 114.6 116.2 117.6 119.1 120.7 121.9 122.7 123.5 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 10 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -34. -43. -50. -55. -60. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -24. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -11. -17. -28. -43. -59. -74. -89.-104.-114.-124. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##