* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 27 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 29 27 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 12 13 15 16 17 13 12 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 231 202 194 197 189 194 202 210 201 205 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 106 105 106 108 109 109 109 109 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 40 39 38 36 34 33 28 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 59 55 52 51 49 42 46 35 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 24 15 2 3 -6 -14 -5 -10 -2 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 5 5 5 4 0 -2 -3 0 -2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2041 1987 1935 1882 1830 1757 1726 1727 1738 1738 1727 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.3 135.8 136.3 136.8 137.3 138.0 138.3 138.3 138.2 138.2 138.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -16. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -28. -36. -41. -44. -46. -47. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##