* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 26 29 30 30 30 31 34 37 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 26 29 30 30 30 31 34 37 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 29 29 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 14 14 14 19 19 21 14 12 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 337 329 301 292 298 270 281 262 277 274 312 302 353 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 144 144 143 143 144 144 144 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 34 32 33 36 39 39 42 44 49 53 57 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 2 4 12 12 2 3 3 10 7 -6 -25 -44 200 MB DIV -14 -12 -26 -16 -9 13 0 19 7 8 -8 -1 -23 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 2 4 2 2 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1887 1953 2020 2084 2149 4258 4149 4053 3953 3805 3623 3459 3332 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 175.9 176.7 177.5 178.3 179.0 180.6 182.1 183.5 185.0 186.6 188.1 189.3 190.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 56 64 63 57 50 57 56 57 58 54 57 57 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 14. 17. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##