* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 80 75 64 51 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 80 75 64 51 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 80 75 70 58 46 35 26 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 9 9 10 12 14 18 26 29 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 1 1 3 0 5 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 173 121 91 72 67 21 359 329 311 281 277 259 250 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.1 23.7 22.7 22.5 21.8 20.8 20.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 127 124 122 113 99 90 88 80 68 65 72 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 60 58 54 53 48 47 45 41 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 34 33 32 30 28 24 20 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 68 73 66 69 78 93 82 62 42 20 -2 4 16 200 MB DIV 17 29 35 5 2 -10 16 -4 -3 -20 -15 -9 -8 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -8 -8 4 1 10 10 4 1 LAND (KM) 400 416 447 483 516 592 614 597 643 655 544 543 645 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.8 23.1 24.7 26.7 28.6 30.4 30.9 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.5 117.1 118.4 119.9 121.4 122.6 123.3 124.1 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 10 11 12 10 7 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 8 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -30. -38. -44. -49. -54. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -17. -21. -26. -27. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -15. -26. -39. -56. -72. -86.-100.-108.-116. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##