* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 13 17 17 17 15 10 12 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 0 4 2 3 0 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 184 188 189 192 201 198 209 215 221 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 105 106 106 106 108 109 109 109 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 43 41 38 35 34 31 28 22 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 56 52 53 53 50 48 36 19 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 13 1 3 4 -25 -15 -16 -2 -16 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 2 1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1998 1950 1903 1856 1809 1757 1747 1758 1781 1781 1758 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.4 19.4 19.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.7 136.2 136.6 137.0 137.5 138.0 138.1 138.0 137.8 137.8 138.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -33. -40. -44. -48. -49. -50. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##