* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 07/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 45 51 54 54 54 50 46 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 45 51 54 54 54 50 46 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 46 52 54 53 51 46 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 5 2 4 7 17 24 32 37 44 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 2 4 6 8 4 1 10 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 20 45 44 62 93 254 263 288 267 267 261 288 303 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.4 27.1 27.5 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 121 121 120 117 117 119 120 127 131 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 121 120 119 117 117 119 119 124 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 70 70 67 61 53 51 54 53 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 3 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 -8 -10 -11 -18 -16 -13 -11 -19 -51 -78 -101 200 MB DIV 145 105 36 29 49 32 24 -4 30 50 20 -10 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 6 24 16 19 23 25 14 LAND (KM) 1843 1729 1620 1528 1445 1292 1156 1060 1010 906 787 648 631 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.8 17.5 19.4 20.8 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.3 40.5 43.2 46.2 49.8 53.2 56.2 58.3 60.1 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 13 15 17 18 17 15 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 4 6 7 3 3 5 5 5 16 17 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 3. -1. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 26. 29. 29. 29. 25. 21. 15. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 07/17/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED