* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 26 29 30 31 31 33 37 40 42 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 26 29 30 31 31 33 37 40 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 27 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 12 10 19 19 16 13 12 8 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 324 283 287 292 282 271 290 287 316 295 348 351 37 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 144 144 143 143 144 145 145 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 33 34 37 40 41 39 44 45 50 52 53 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 14 16 6 4 4 1 6 -1 -18 -29 -52 200 MB DIV -8 -21 -10 0 24 -14 33 7 25 -4 2 -15 -72 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 0 5 2 0 3 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1938 2006 2075 2136 2198 4220 4112 4004 3862 3676 3486 3335 3216 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 176.6 177.4 178.2 179.0 179.7 181.3 182.9 184.4 186.1 187.8 189.4 190.7 191.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 56 49 43 56 57 58 56 58 61 55 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 17. 20. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##