* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 80 74 70 55 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 85 80 74 70 55 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 78 71 65 53 41 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 9 4 15 9 17 20 28 27 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 3 0 3 2 4 5 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 134 112 60 59 29 4 332 309 274 259 241 231 220 SST (C) 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.4 24.4 22.9 22.4 21.8 21.0 20.6 20.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 122 119 116 107 92 86 80 70 64 61 66 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 58 56 55 50 48 46 44 39 34 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 30 30 30 27 23 21 19 16 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 69 70 77 82 69 42 17 2 15 32 30 200 MB DIV 36 41 16 4 8 -5 18 1 4 -10 7 0 -7 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 -1 7 6 1 -6 -19 LAND (KM) 385 440 464 485 518 587 565 557 581 577 506 499 544 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.5 24.2 26.1 28.1 29.7 30.8 31.0 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.7 114.6 115.3 116.1 117.5 119.0 120.3 121.5 122.4 123.3 123.5 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 8 9 11 11 10 8 4 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -25. -34. -42. -48. -53. -58. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -16. -19. -24. -26. -28. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -20. -35. -51. -65. -78. -92.-103.-113.-125. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##