* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 17 18 16 16 12 11 10 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 1 3 3 1 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 196 191 190 195 210 203 223 221 257 284 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 105 105 105 107 109 109 108 108 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 42 39 37 36 35 34 26 23 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 52 49 47 47 43 39 17 8 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -4 2 7 -5 -21 -14 -6 -7 -24 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1955 1914 1872 1841 1809 1768 1768 1770 1770 1770 1770 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 19.8 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.1 136.5 136.9 137.2 137.5 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9 137.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -33. -39. -43. -46. -47. -48. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##