* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 07/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 46 49 50 50 47 44 42 42 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 46 49 50 50 47 44 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 34 37 43 49 51 50 48 45 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 6 1 2 12 15 28 30 36 34 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 4 6 6 1 0 5 7 2 0 SHEAR DIR 64 71 82 90 96 260 275 276 270 271 263 278 282 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 121 120 120 121 121 122 129 134 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 120 120 120 120 123 122 122 127 127 128 125 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 72 66 60 53 55 54 55 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -14 -16 -18 -25 -19 -9 -1 -10 -24 -36 -51 200 MB DIV 93 34 23 38 48 15 -2 19 30 49 15 -1 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -2 0 0 13 15 14 12 13 15 0 LAND (KM) 1699 1600 1507 1412 1324 1171 1008 945 797 716 561 338 251 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.9 15.1 16.6 17.9 19.1 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.2 39.4 40.6 41.9 44.7 48.0 51.7 55.1 58.1 60.4 62.6 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 14 15 18 18 17 15 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 6 3 3 10 9 13 11 14 16 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 25. 25. 22. 19. 17. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 07/17/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED