* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 27 29 31 36 39 41 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 27 29 31 36 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 26 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 11 15 23 20 21 8 9 4 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 282 281 285 280 266 290 285 298 262 294 332 327 353 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 143 143 145 146 145 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 34 37 39 40 39 42 44 48 49 52 51 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 11 4 2 8 7 8 4 -7 -23 -39 -58 200 MB DIV -24 -12 -1 22 13 -4 22 11 2 -8 1 -26 -55 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 2 4 0 0 1 -2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1977 2041 2105 2176 4295 4176 4064 3947 3818 3633 3458 3315 3211 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.3 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 177.1 177.9 178.6 179.4 180.2 181.8 183.3 184.9 186.7 188.4 189.9 191.2 192.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 62 58 52 46 57 57 58 58 57 59 61 53 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 9. 11. 16. 19. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##