* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 56 52 46 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 62 56 52 46 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 61 55 50 45 36 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 4 8 13 12 21 28 29 27 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 1 0 3 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 106 69 69 36 354 2 313 288 260 259 245 242 236 SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.8 23.5 22.4 21.9 21.0 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 119 115 110 98 87 81 70 64 65 66 70 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 62 59 57 56 53 50 48 44 42 38 30 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 29 29 27 25 22 19 16 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 70 68 70 59 36 24 -4 -4 0 19 22 200 MB DIV 37 0 0 9 3 11 13 -9 -15 -1 -7 -4 -13 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -7 5 2 8 7 -2 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 441 464 493 519 559 576 523 549 553 503 530 559 607 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.8 22.2 23.4 25.5 27.7 29.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.6 115.4 116.2 117.0 118.2 119.6 120.8 121.9 122.6 123.0 123.4 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 12 11 8 4 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -29. -34. -37. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -24. -27. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -24. -37. -50. -64. -76. -89. -99.-106.-113. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##