* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 32 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 17 19 19 18 17 12 12 8 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 2 3 3 0 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 196 192 195 209 211 208 218 224 244 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 104 105 106 107 107 106 106 105 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 40 38 36 36 34 30 25 25 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 51 45 42 40 39 35 27 10 4 -2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 1 9 -3 -26 -19 -15 -2 -20 -15 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 2 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1914 1877 1841 1820 1799 1789 1820 1852 1873 1882 1872 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.1 19.9 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.5 136.9 137.2 137.4 137.6 137.7 137.4 137.1 136.9 136.8 136.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -12. -20. -28. -34. -38. -39. -40. -42. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##