* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 07/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 36 38 39 39 37 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 36 38 39 39 37 35 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 37 38 37 36 34 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 0 4 8 15 22 28 30 43 35 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 6 4 5 4 0 5 5 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 83 85 85 127 290 281 286 266 274 263 269 273 300 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 121 120 119 120 120 120 125 130 134 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 120 120 119 120 122 119 123 125 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 71 69 63 56 54 54 54 57 58 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -13 -15 -20 -26 -15 -2 -2 -13 -39 -51 -74 200 MB DIV 30 25 33 44 42 12 -12 21 28 45 0 7 7 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 0 0 6 16 12 14 13 22 5 0 LAND (KM) 1586 1496 1414 1323 1245 1091 975 940 753 726 507 390 356 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.7 15.9 17.4 18.7 20.1 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 38.4 39.5 40.7 42.0 43.4 46.4 49.9 53.3 56.4 58.9 60.9 62.5 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 16 18 17 15 13 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 4 3 6 7 12 10 10 15 14 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 10. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 07/17/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED