* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 30 30 32 36 41 44 46 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 30 30 32 36 41 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 12 13 19 18 23 15 11 5 5 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 280 293 288 273 286 299 288 303 234 214 226 34 39 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 143 143 142 143 145 145 143 143 142 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 39 40 43 45 49 51 51 50 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 5 3 9 6 4 3 -7 -24 -39 -55 -67 200 MB DIV -10 0 18 10 -7 12 5 23 -11 -6 -16 -48 -83 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 6 2 -1 3 0 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2032 2095 2160 4319 4260 4169 4060 3890 3706 3523 3372 3247 3153 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 177.9 178.7 179.4 180.2 181.0 182.4 183.9 185.6 187.2 188.7 190.0 191.0 191.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 47 54 55 56 55 54 54 59 51 44 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 10. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##