* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 52 46 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 52 46 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 57 51 46 41 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 5 7 12 12 15 18 28 29 28 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 1 0 1 2 1 3 2 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 52 64 51 348 349 348 313 276 252 233 229 217 216 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.5 24.8 24.2 22.8 22.3 21.8 21.1 20.8 21.1 21.5 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 117 110 104 90 85 80 71 66 69 74 81 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 58 56 52 49 46 40 30 27 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 26 25 23 21 18 15 13 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 64 69 65 50 28 5 4 0 3 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 7 -2 9 6 -13 14 -1 11 1 -9 -8 -10 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -5 0 0 -2 0 -4 10 10 0 -1 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 465 498 541 566 606 556 554 581 579 536 588 665 776 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.6 22.2 22.7 24.4 26.2 28.1 29.8 30.6 30.2 29.5 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.6 116.3 117.1 117.8 119.1 120.3 121.5 122.7 123.5 123.8 124.0 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 7 3 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -21. -27. -31. -34. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -28. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -25. -39. -54. -67. -78. -90.-100.-105.-110. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##