* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 31 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 31 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 18 17 16 13 11 9 6 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 195 199 206 213 209 222 214 242 233 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 105 106 107 107 107 104 104 104 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 38 36 36 35 33 29 24 24 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 45 44 42 41 34 35 12 -12 -28 -49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 7 -3 -24 -21 -10 -12 -5 -16 -13 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 3 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1882 1851 1820 1809 1799 1821 1852 1872 1861 1842 1816 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.8 137.1 137.4 137.5 137.6 137.4 137.1 136.9 137.0 137.2 137.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -11. -20. -29. -37. -41. -43. -44. -46. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##