* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 07/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 37 38 36 35 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 37 38 36 35 36 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 34 32 30 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 1 5 6 14 16 28 32 42 41 32 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 5 5 5 1 2 1 1 -4 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 106 101 134 274 308 303 288 271 281 269 276 281 314 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 121 120 121 121 122 129 134 136 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 122 121 121 123 122 121 127 127 127 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 66 59 53 53 51 52 52 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -16 -21 -26 -23 -12 -4 -8 -22 -33 -47 -89 200 MB DIV 26 31 41 30 9 -11 -3 12 33 25 0 -1 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 -1 12 15 17 11 15 18 0 5 LAND (KM) 1511 1410 1317 1224 1149 992 937 765 697 531 315 242 289 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.9 13.9 15.0 16.5 17.8 19.0 20.1 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 40.6 41.9 43.4 44.9 48.3 52.0 55.4 58.3 60.7 62.8 64.4 65.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 18 16 15 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 6 11 12 17 10 14 15 18 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -5. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 10. 11. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 07/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 07/17/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED