* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 36 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 36 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 38 35 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 8 12 16 13 21 28 31 29 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 43 354 343 355 324 294 268 261 239 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.0 24.2 23.5 22.5 22.1 21.1 20.3 20.1 20.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 112 104 98 87 83 72 61 58 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 58 55 49 47 42 39 31 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 22 21 19 16 13 11 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 60 72 67 59 40 20 13 16 18 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 0 2 -15 -8 12 -6 -17 -7 -16 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 -1 6 2 10 5 -2 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 530 560 603 624 612 546 572 548 455 435 521 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.6 23.3 25.4 27.4 29.4 30.9 31.1 30.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.0 118.6 119.8 120.9 121.8 122.4 122.4 122.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 11 11 11 9 4 2 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. -21. -22. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -13. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -26. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -20. -31. -44. -56. -70. -79. -89. -90. -91. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##