* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 28 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 18 18 16 12 13 8 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 200 209 218 216 213 209 216 244 247 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 107 108 108 106 104 103 102 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 37 36 36 34 32 26 25 22 20 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 41 41 39 34 30 8 -6 -18 -32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 0 -22 -17 -8 -18 -7 -28 -18 -6 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 3 -1 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1861 1830 1799 1794 1789 1831 1851 1862 1854 1819 1730 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.1 19.8 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.3 137.6 137.7 137.7 137.3 137.1 137.0 137.1 137.5 138.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 4 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -14. -24. -34. -41. -45. -47. -49. -51. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##