* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932015 07/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 33 35 37 34 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 33 35 37 34 35 37 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 29 29 29 27 25 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 4 4 11 18 28 33 45 35 28 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 4 4 4 1 2 3 1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 91 68 319 329 296 277 257 276 263 270 274 295 291 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 122 122 123 122 126 131 135 137 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 122 123 124 125 124 126 128 128 130 129 127 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 11 12 12 14 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 68 63 58 53 53 50 50 50 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -19 -23 -21 -13 -5 -5 -15 -33 -31 -52 -74 200 MB DIV 30 18 2 -2 -19 -14 0 17 28 -4 -7 -4 -2 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 1 6 14 14 16 15 20 6 0 2 LAND (KM) 1335 1233 1144 1063 984 863 790 596 602 336 114 122 126 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.8 13.8 15.1 16.6 17.6 18.7 19.6 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.3 42.7 44.1 45.6 47.2 50.8 54.4 57.7 60.3 62.6 64.7 66.9 68.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 17 18 18 16 13 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 9 16 13 24 14 17 19 22 15 27 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. 2. -5. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 14. 15. 17. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST 07/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST 07/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST 07/18/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED