* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 41 47 51 56 58 58 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 41 47 51 56 58 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 35 41 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 15 12 12 9 9 7 8 14 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 -5 -5 -5 -5 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 273 267 272 285 274 278 276 264 329 339 19 28 46 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 142 142 144 143 142 142 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 36 37 39 42 44 46 50 52 53 52 49 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 2 3 7 6 6 -9 -23 -33 -45 -57 -55 200 MB DIV 14 7 -18 -2 9 -8 12 -1 -5 -23 -34 -53 -60 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 2099 2164 4256 4209 4163 4044 3872 3687 3520 3377 3244 3149 3100 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 179.2 179.9 180.6 181.3 182.0 183.5 185.1 186.7 188.1 189.3 190.4 191.2 191.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 56 39 50 50 51 53 52 51 56 47 38 37 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 36. 38. 38. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##